[TriLUG] Whither Linux?

[Thomas Beckett]

  I've been thinking about operating systems lately, and Linux in 
particular.  Also, because of a b-school course I'm taking, I've been 
thinking about the various strategic uncertainty factors affecting the 
future of the Linux OS, the Linux community and (because I live here in 
Durham and know folks who work there) Red Hat in particular.

I've got a short list of uncertainties that, to my mind, have an effect on 
the future of Linux.  I wonder if some of y'all would join me in 
brainstorming other factors and then apply a little scenario methodology to 
mapping out possible futures.

The uncertainties that first came to my mind were the really negative 
possibilities:

- Linus Torvalds dies or is incapacitated.
- LinuXP with proprietary Microsoft extensions (a direct challenge to the GPL)
- some controversy results in multiple forkings and 3+ significantly 
different distros
- AOL buys Red Hat

And then there's the relatively positive:

- Microsoft falters in the consumer market, Apple and OSX regain 
significant market share
- Microsoft falters in the server market, Sun also rises
- Significant increase in pervasive computing and embedded devices

What am I missing?  What other factors could significantly disrupt or 
improve the technology development and/or the IT markets to affect Linux's 
course?

TaB

Apologies to those of you on the INW list getting this 2x.