[TriLUG] Whither Linux?

[M. Mueller (bhu5nji)]

> The uncertainties that first came to my mind were the really negative
> possibilities:
>
> - Linus Torvalds dies or is incapacitated.

No technology dies with the loss of a person.  It's technique-ology.  THe 
study of technique.  Other know the technique. LT is a leader.  Leaders come
and go.  One day he will die.  Drop from list.

> - LinuXP with proprietary Microsoft extensions (a direct challenge to the
> GPL) - some controversy results in multiple forkings and 3+ significantly
> different distros

Would that be W2K?  Difference is good.  I think the world is emerging from 
thinking that all OS must be the same to control chaos.  Standardized methods 
of information exchange are eliminating the need for a universal OS.  I think 
Bill and company made a pretty good run at convincing MBAs that the OS was 
responsible for standardized information exchange.

I run a pure Linux business.  This week I sent a quote to a client in .XLS 
format.  I thought he would like that.  Email came back shortly requesting 
quote in text.  On the other hand, I once worked for a tech-amalgamation that 
dispensed with personal conversation in lieu of PowerPoint chart decks.  
Instead of talking, people would exchange emails with chart decks attached.

I diverge from the topic at hand. Sorry.

> - AOL buys Red Hat

Too bad it didn't happen.  I thought it would be interesting to way a lot of 
money would do to a distro.  I was hoping for a RH based AOL appliance.  I 
never worried about AOL "ruining" the distro because there are others out 
there.

>
> And then there's the relatively positive:
>
> - Microsoft falters in the consumer market, Apple and OSX regain
> significant market share

Hmm.  Wouldn't expect that to happen.  hardware is not open source.  Once you 
get a taste of a $287 PC with 128MB RAM, 20 GB HDD and a 900 Mhz Duron 
running Linux, it's hard to consider another alternative.

> - Microsoft falters in the server market, Sun also rises


> - Significant increase in pervasive computing and embedded devices

Playstation becomes dominant web crusier and email and music  and DVD 
appliance.  It's definitely going to happen.  SOme of them will run Linux and 
the consumer will never know.

Industrial control

Voice communications over IP

>
> What am I missing?  What other factors could significantly disrupt or
> improve the technology development and/or the IT markets to affect Linux's
> course?

On the low end of the economic spectrum, avoiding the MS tax is a key 
disrupter.  On the high end, Sun, MS, and Linux will do battle.  Linux and 
open source OS will secure a place.  But at the high end of things, teh 
question is less about the OS and more about the application.  If the 
application comes quicker, better, cheaper on Linux, then Linux will dominate 
in the high end.  This .NET thing is a concern.  It contains proprietary 
teechnology.  How can anyone seriously consider such an alternative?  Has 
nothing been learned?

Mike M.